Finally, he successfully managed to end the crisis with a "peaceful" political negotiation with the Soviet Premier, Nikita Khrushchev. Looking at this situation through the sociological framework of feminism, the oppression and treatment of women as sexual objects is as clear as, Regarding informational processing roles, monitoring role was hold by JFK as he indirectly scanned for information (i.e. At every stage of the decision-making process, misperceptions, biases, and other tricks of the mind can influence the choices we make. Let's face it: Everyone wants . Their efforts to be thorough are causing delays, and the whole team is feeling frustrated. Published 1 September 1998. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. Price negotiations are always affected by the first number mentioned. Gathering Intelligence. Narrow framing : you only look at the options immediately presented to you, and therefore you miss . Strategic management: Formulation, implementation, and control (11th ed.). No private DNS zone linked to VNet1. "When you seek input, avoid sharing your ideas first so the person giving the advice doesn't fall into the . Kennedy and his advisors must come up with a plan of action against the Soviets. The consultants had fallen into the anchoring trap, and as a result, they ended up paying a lot more for the space than they had to. (2009). In fact, anything that distorts your ability to recall events in a balanced way will distort your probability assessments. Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments. That can lead to errors in judgment and, in turn, bad decisions. Another group in the study, however, was asked to choose between alternatives C and D: Plan C: This plan will result in the loss of two of the three cargoes, worth $400,000. We shoot out its rudder and board. Although the price was at the high end of current market rates, the consultants made a relatively modest counteroffer. This trap is . Lawyers then offer too large settlements. If there is any mistakes in the process, the price is destruction of every human civilization. This is just a, conventional way. These thirteen days were the time period in which the fate of the world was decided. But, even more dangerous, they can work in concert, amplifying one another. Breaking from the status quo means taking action, and when we take action, we take responsibility, thus opening ourselves to criticism and to regret. When faced with high-stakes decisions, we tend to adjust our estimates or forecasts just to be on the safe side. Many years ago, for example, one of the Big Three U.S. automakers was deciding how many of a new-model car to produce in anticipation of its busiest sales season. Thirteen Days Movie Analysis.docx - Thirteen Days Movie Analysis Introduction: The movie I watched for this movie analysis assignment is Thirteen Days. People sometimes, for example, inherit shares of stock that they would never have bought themselves. They had fallen victim to the sunk-cost bias. . Being overly influenced by vivid memories when estimating Example: Lawyers overestimate probability of large awards because the media aggressively publicizes massive awards. The movie I watched for this movie analysis assignment is Thirteen Days. I recommend airstrikes followed by invasion." Sticking with the status quo represents, in most cases, the safer course because it puts us at less psychological risk. For example: Think hard throughout your decision-making process about the framing of the problem. Sometimes a corporate culture reinforces the sunk-cost trap. In this movie, two of the main actors, they are Bruce Greenwood who acted as President John F. Kennedy and Kevin Costner act as Kenneth Kenny ODonnell. Using this approach, engineers designed weapons to operate under the worst possible combination of circumstances, even though the odds of those circumstances actually coming to pass were infinitesimal. These routines, known as heuristics, serve us well in most situations. The Soviet ambassador also pushed for the removal and threatened that both sides will have to go to war. 10-25). Executives should recognize that, in an uncertain world where unforeseeable events are common, good decisions can sometimes lead to bad outcomes. These rules of thumb serve us reasonably well, allowing us to make decisions quickly, so that we can efficiently carry out the tasks that are demanded of us. The subsequent study questions included: (RQ1): Does constructed response measure the leader skills, and knowledge that is accounted for the variance in the criteria of leadership? Overly confident about the accuracy of their predictions, most people set too narrow a range of possibilities. Strategic decisions set the course of organization. Thirteen Days" by Antony Gumi The "Thirteen Days" movie describes how the 35th president of United States of America (USA), John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK) dealt with the Cuban Missile Crisis during the period of October 14-28, 1963. They especially don't want to repeat an expensive mistake another team made last year by choosing a technology that's overly complicated or hard to learn. Harvard Business Review, 84 (1), 118-126. Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately . Third, President rejected the guarantee of getting all the missile through surgical strike when mentioned by Cam. Your email address will not be published. The judge is quick to point out just how severe the punishment will be for such a charge and reminds the jurors that the decision of guilty must be found so that there is not a single bit of doubt. (1994). This trap can lead to falling short of projections, missing deadlines, and over-running budgets by overestimating performance and underestimating risk. Even if you cant eradicate the distortions ingrained into the way your mind works, you can build tests and disciplines into your decision-making process that can uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgment. Even if we are neither overly confident nor unduly prudent, we can still fall into a trap when making estimates or forecasts. This essay on Confirming-Evidence Trap in Decision-Making was written and submitted by your fellow student. The key members, principals, the executive committee of the National Security council were sought to give their alternatives throughout out the movie. They find the status quo comfortable, and they avoid taking action that would upset it. In his first comments in the job, Mr Pistorius, a regional . Here, the criteria set for taking a decision is based on peaceful initiatives (without using nuclear weapons). These traps make us see patterns that aren't there, overestimate our abilities, or try to make reality conform to what we want rather than what's likely to happenthey can be especially tricky in . By acknowledging that some good ideas will end in failure, executives will encourage people to cut their losses rather than let them mount. (19184). The following are the different types of decision-making traps . This website uses cookies to improve your experience. Once informed as to what their duties are, the two alternate jurors are dismissed and the remaining twelve men are shown into a small conference room. You need to put it to the test. Would you accept the chance? Yet I cant help but think that she knows her body better than anyone else. They shoot down our planes in response. Furthermore, in one of the group discussions, Admiral Anderson clarified rules of engagement for ships that do not follow the quarantine in a meeting. Decision Making Traps The Status Quo Trap Thirteen Days captures the tension that the crisis provoked and provides an example of how foreign policy was made in the last half of the 20th century. Task behaviors are those traits that keep others motivated to work to complete objectives. Removal Request This preview shows page 1 - 2 out of 3 pages. For example, if a person buys an object based on it's comfort, when the frame should be price, it can be a costly mistake. This trap comes from our innate tendency when faced with loss to have strong emotions, which outweigh the positive emotions associated with gain. In one psychological study of this phenomenon, two groupsone opposed to and one supporting capital punishmenteach read two reports of carefully conducted research on the effectiveness of the death penalty as a deterrent to crime. They may lead you to mental errors (e.g., thinking fast). We get through the day with heuristics. To avoid them: Probe your emotions. In B. Kellerman (Ed.). A leader of a group may unintentionally anchor a groups thinking by presenting their opinion or analysis first in a decision-making process. Think about the problem on your own before consulting others in order to avoid becoming anchored by their ideas. thirteen days decision making traps. Later that week, Linda had lunch with a friend who had just attended a learning experience at work called Decision Mojo. Otherwise, its just throwing good money after bad. The frames used can cause various decision traps. 13.8 Conclusion. The Information Overdose trap occurs when we overdose or fail to set limits on information gathering, which canmake it difficult to process or distinguish between whats relevant and whats extraneous. A., II, Robinson, R. B. for this assignment you will watch and analyze the movie thirteen days and write a 700-800-word paper that identifies the decision-making traps and decision-making practices of the groups in this film.as you watch the movie, identify and describe specific scenes that illustrate each of the following three categories: (1) examples of at least four But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from these mental lapses. For further discussions of decision traps, see: J. Edward Russo and Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision Making and How to Overcome Them (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1989) and Max Bazerman, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (New York: John Wiley & Sons, fourth edition, 1998). Knowing the purpose of the estimates, each department slanted its forecast to favor building more carsjust to be safe. But the market planners took the numbers at face value and then made their own just to be safe adjustments. These are just some decision-making traps that can lead to sloppy ethical behavior. Much money has been wasted on ill-fated product-development projects because managers did not accurately account for the possibility of market failure. trading Americans missiles in Turkey with Soviets missiles in Cuba) which what in the end became the final solution of the. Forewarned is forearmed. The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first. This approach, while it may lead to a reasonably accurate estimate, tends to give too much weight to past events and not enough weight to other factors. Having failed to seize the occasion when change would have been expected, management finds itself stuck with the status quo. A successful outcome will not only result in a positive outcome for an organisation but will also increase the leader's credibility and image. Knowing how to make great decisions is one the jewels of great cultures. Choosing between A and B requires additional effort; selecting the status quo avoids that effort. But hundreds of tests have shown that the actual Dow Jones averages fell outside the forecast ranges 20% to 30% of the time. The higher the stakes, the higher the risk of being caught in a psychological trap. The second strongest reason? In one of the meetings, Adhlai clarifies the similarity in risks for the 2 options offered by the members while endorsing his view on the importance of back channel as the third option to deal with the situation. Our past decisions become what economists term sunk costsold investments of time or money that are now irrecoverable. Try posing problems in a neutral, redundant way that combines gains and losses or embraces different reference points. Personally, I think Adlai is the coolest character in this movie since he was the one who propose the idea of political negotiation (i.e. Dont automatically accept the initial frame, whether it was formulated by you or by someone else. Balancing these two behaviors is the key to being an effective leader (Northouse, 2007). The fuzzier it appears, the farther away we assume it must be. THIRTEEN DAYS THE DECISION-MAKING TRAPS AND DECISION-MAKING PRACTICES OF THE GROUPS IN THIS FILM By: Juan Jos E. Lpez I.- DECISION-MAKING TRAPS 1. 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